Putin to stand for re-election as president next year

Putin will win – with a substantial majority

The fact that Vladimir Putin is running again for president will surprise exactly no one.

He set the stage for this back in 2020, when he held a referendum to secure constitutional changes which would limit the number of times a president can run to two consecutive six year terms, and conveniently zero his.

That means he can run till 2036, at which point he will be 83 years old.

The question was when he would make the announcement – and how he would navigate the issue of his “special military operation” during the campaign.

Despite protestations that this was a spur of the moment thing, there is no doubt that it was carefully choreographed.

Putin was asked by the Ukrainian-born commander of a Russian military unit in Donbas if he would run “on behalf of all our people, all of Donbas, our joined lands”.

The optics, as far as the Kremlin is concerned, are that the people should believe that the residents of Donbas need Vladimir Putin to keep fighting their corner.

There is no doubt that Putin will win and with a substantial majority.

He has no real competition, he has locked up key opposition figures like Alexei Navalny and anyone allowed to run against him will be doing so largely to demonstrate how minimal opposition is to his rule and thus to further validate his inevitable victory.

An end to Vladimir Putin’s tenure will not be decided at the ballot box. His political survival may depend on the outcome of this war, but at the moment Russia’s position seems relatively strong – his army is able to hold the line, Ukraine’s counter-offensive has hardly made a dent and Russia’s war economy is on overdrive.

In Russia – indeed anywhere – it is best to expect the unexpected. But perhaps, not next 17 March when Russia’s election committee announces its results.